RUTCOR RESEARCH REPORT

DECEPTIVE DETECTION METHODS FOR OPTIMAL SECURITY WITH INADEQUATE BUDGETS: THE SCREENING POWER INDEX 

Paul Kantor		Endre Boros

Abstract. Detection of contraband depends on countermeasures, some of which involve examining cargo containers and/or their associated documents.  Documents screening is the least expensive physical methods, such as gamma ray detection are more expensive, and definitive manual unpacking is most expensive. We cannot apply the full array of methods to all incoming cargoes, for budgetary reasons.  We study the problem using principles of Game Theory, (and find that for optimal detection the available budget is allocated between screening and definitive unpacking using  a mixture of strategies,) which maximizes detection rate and, further, serves to deceive opponents as to specific tests to which contraband will be subjected. This yields increases of as much as 100% in detection, with essentially no increase in inspection cost.